2019 recap: Polls showed support for Scottish independence rising but still trailing support for the Union (apart from when Brexit was included in the question). The SNP won big (45% and 48/59 seats) at the December General Election with a big majority (63%) voting for parties that either support independence or wouldn’t block a referendum. Boris Johnson became the 55th UK Prime Minister and 1st ‘Minister of the Union,’ a position (and office with a £10m budget) he created for himself. But the ‘Stop Indyref’ Scottish Tories lost over half their MPs, down to 6.
2020 is the first year in which an established majority reported a consistent support for independence. 17 polls in a row showed a lead for Yes over No, the biggest margin being 58/42. YouGov, Panelbase and Ipsos Mori all found the SNP to be streets ahead of the Tories and the First Minister a few leagues above a struggling Boris Johnson, thanks, apparently, to how she dealt with the Covid19 crisis.
There was no Carlaw/Wells – or, after they were quickly deposed, Ross/Davidson – bounce for the Tories. A majority want a referendum. A majority want a ‘Plan B’ route if faced with a continued British Government refusal to grant a Section 30.
It’s great to see more people realising that we can do better for ourselves than London does for us. We don’t have to put up with governments we didn’t vote for doing things like taking us out of the EU after we voted to stay in it. Here’s all the polls in chronological order. There have been various reports of a panic building in Westminster. Enjoy.
Opinion of Devolution
Boris Johnson called devolution ‘disastrous’ and ‘Blair’s biggest mistake’ in a leaked group call with Tory MPs from northern England. Tory MP, JR Mogg called for a reverse of ‘Blair’s constitutional tinkering’. But how much support is there for the Tory dream of closing Holyrood? The answer is – not much at all. Certainly no where near enough for any serious party to propose it. So none do.
2021
Polling shows an SNP majority in 2021’s election looks very possible and a pro independence Holyrood looks pretty likely again. If achieved, this would seriously increase the pressure on Westminster, with some Unionists already admitting their position will be too weak to continue saying no. It’ll be interesting to see if the Tories even base their campaign on a ‘no to indyref’ pledge after their painful experience last time. But then what else is there. 
